The 2018 film slate and resulting awards season has been weird. It’s the first year that the Academy showed significant growing pains as it tries to make its membership better reflect the world at large. That diversity has come across gender and racial categories, both domestic and abroad.
The clearest example of the wide spectrum of Academy membership is that both Green Book and Black Panther are nominated for Best Picture. The former is about as traditional an Oscar movie as you can make today (Driving Miss Daisy won almost 30 years ago), complete with questionable racial politics. The latter is a spy thriller with an almost all black cast that promotes African pride and empowerment, all wrapped up in a superhero comic book adaptation that’s part of the biggest franchise in film history. Other notable inclusions this year are Cold War’s director nod, as well as it and Never Look Away in cinematography. Roma is a black & white, foreign-language Netflix film that’s also the frontrunner to win Best Picture. Spider-Man is all but guaranteed an Oscar. But there’s still a mediocre film that pops up everywhere (cough* Bohemian Rhapsody *cough) to remind us that no matter what the Academy will make questionable choices. The changes reflected in the nominations alone would make it a fascinating year, but the Academy has also shown a desperate desire for increased ratings and the puzzling belief that a three-hour show would help. First, there was the popular film category, an idea that was quickly abandoned after a backlash that should have been expected. Then they got Kevin Hart as host which was a big win until his old tweets and homophobic jokes (which were already common knowledge) caused controversy – again something that should have been expected. Instead of just apologizing first and maybe getting to keep the gig, Hart got defensive, the Academy flubbed the response (two or three times) and he was out. Then Hart finally properly apologized. Now the show is left without a host. Finally, there was the three-day flip-out around four categories, including editing and cinematography, being cut from the broadcast. While I think the response was overly harsh, it was another expected issue that they should have been prepared for. Once again, they had to backtrack. For an organization that includes some of the best PR representatives in the world, they’re surprisingly inept at crisis management. In the end it looks like the telecast may be the most surprising part of the night since there's no host to guide the way, but that might just make it boring. We get Queen as the opener, so at least one good thing has come from Bohemian Rhapsody’s nomination count. While I'm hoping we get some interesting wins along the way I'm predicting fewer surprises because that always reflects my optimism and leads to a lot of incorrect guesses. So here we go – my somewhat informed predictions that will be heavily influenced by personal taste and therefore heavily wrong. Enjoy!
1 Comment
After the best picture presentation debacle (but great outcome) last year, it’s inevitable that the Academy Award show will be less exciting than 2017. But for those of us who pay too much attention to this stuff, it’s already one of the most interesting and competitive film awards years ever, and the finale should continue that trend. I’m a big fan of a lot of the key contenders as well, which always makes it more fun. So no matter what wins – even as, like I say every year, it doesn’t really matter outside of a conduit for conversation and promotion – I’ll be happy with the list. While many of the “big” awards seem set-in-stone, the best picture race is unlike anything I have ever seen, with 3-4 legitimate contenders to win it. Plus, there’s a lot of deserving winners in most categories that seem like locks. For anyone taking bets (literally or figuratively) the below-the-line categories will provide a lot of tension to keep you entertained. Perhaps more than ever, politics will cast a shadow over the whole show. With the #MeToo movement, gun control, and a vast array of other issues top of mind, expect a political lens on everything, for better or worse. As always, I am trying to predict, but when there's a toss-up I go with the one I want to win, which usully hurts my accuracy. So without further ado, my kind-of, maybe somewhat accurate, but almost certainly wrong Oscar predictions for 2018! My number one prediction: This will be the single most political awards ceremony ever. I expect mostly issue-focused speeches rather than the usual heartfelt (or insincere) shock, but hopefully the sense of humor remains in tact. At the very least, I’m certain Jimmy Kimmel knows how hard his job is at the moment. With that said, I’m just going to get right into it. I also PROMISE my favorite films of 2016 will be coming within a week, even if it’s just ridiculous at this point. Deadlines work for me. Awards show disclaimer: In the end, none of this really matters. Will I care if I get most of these wrong? Not much. I honestly may be happier because that will be exciting. Does a typical win mean anything beyond confirmation of strong name recognition, an effective marketing strategy, and at least a competent film? Not assuredly. Will anything about this ceremony change the great slate of films that came out in 2016 (both nominated & not) or any of their elements? Nope. Remember that, in the end, it’s all PR politics. Well here we are with another year of film behind us and another Academy Awards broadcast tonight. Every year I write this I need to provide a reminder: the Academy Awards are not important as an indicator of quality or the end all be all of a film’s worth. These are fun awards and it’s nice when a film you love wins, but in the end this really only effects the person who won and any future projects they work on – the films (nominated or not) are not changed, so the work stands on its own after today. This is all a preamble of me proving that I’ve spent too much time thinking about these awards, but it’s more of a fun political guessing game than a competition of quality. If you’d like my thoughts on the overall quality of film this year and my personal favorites – click here. With that out of the way I can now say how excited I am because there are some amazing films nominated and likely winning awards tonight. Not only that, but there’s actually suspense in some major categories, including best picture, best director, and lead actor. I have never had such a difficult time predicting winners which is really interesting and should make for a fun show. As for my predictions themselves? Probably ok, not great. In a lot of places my personal favorite is probably a safe second place bet (mostly with "Whiplash"), but guess what – I predicted it anyways because there’s a bit of hope-dicting going on. There could be some major surprises since relatively few categories are utter locks so I’ll always predict and pull for my favorites – it’d be nice to get it all right but in the end I do this as an excuse to talk about some films I love, so if they have a chance I’m going to lean in that direction. This is already too long – just like the show undoubtedly will be – so enjoy! Another extremely competitive year in the cinema awards race comes to a close with the Oscars this Sunday, so here I am to make my predictions once again. It’s been an interesting year and for the first time in a bit there are no nominees that make me really scratch my head. 2013 had a lot of fantastic films to offer and while all of them are not represented here, there are still some pretty good ones from which to choose (including 4 of my own top 10 in the “best picture” category). As usual, the precursors seem to have most categories sewn up already, although there is some pleasant suspense in top categories. Last year threw us some curveballs with the nominations coming out before the guilds announced their winners, but with a few exceptions everything was closer to normal this year. Also worth noting: in the few places where I could not settle on a clear first choice I tried to let my personal preference guide me (when it was a realistic possibility). That worked out quite well for me last year - 21 out of 24 categories correct – but that streak will almost certainly end here: For the first time, I’m not sure on my choice for best picture. This is also the first year I have seen all of the documentary and foreign language nominees before the ceremony, so there are even more places for me to be disappointed since I feel much more invested in each of them. _ Okay, so I was technically on vacation for the last 2 days and there were really no big surprises or shocks about the 85th Annual Academy Awards ceremony, so I didn’t feel the need to chime in right away. However, I did want to say something about the final night of the year in film, as well as follow-up on my predictions, which worked out pretty well for me. So let's get that that after you click below:
As I said before, I have followed the Oscar race for many years now, and I can’t remember one quite like this. With the Oscar nominations voting deadline before the major guilds announced their nominees, the academy was left to their own devices. While many of the expected faces were still nominated, there were many surprises, and with more time between nominations and the ceremony itself, the race has seemed more fluid than usual in phase 2. Yes, the guild wins cemented a frontrunner in picture, but in doing so they also made the directing race much more interesting. In truth, there are only about 13-15 categories that I am relatively sure about. This will make the ceremony much more interesting come Sunday, and I for one, would love it if this uncertainty became the new normal. Without an obvious frontrunner in many of these categories, I ended up allowing personal feelings for certain films and performances to play into my predictions (which usually means assuming my favorite will lose), so I may get some extra categories wrong in the process. In the end though, none of this really matters. Will I care if I get half of these wrong? Not much. Does a win mean anything beyond confirmation of strong name recognition, an effective marketing strategy, and at least a competent film? Not in the long run. Finally, will anything about this ceremony change the great slate of films that came out in 2012 (both nominated & not)? Nope. Remember that in the end, it’s all politics. So with that said, lets get to the fun of predictions. _ Well, that was surprising. If this Oscar season was not exciting before, it certainly is now, as two of the 3 frontrunners were knocked down a few pegs, while the magic of Harvey Weinstein was proven once again. Beasts of the Southern Wild emerging as a true contender? That’s awesome. Lincoln is the only one that pretty much stayed where it was, which is at the top, but not secure. One note about a category I didn’t predict: I’m not happy with the omission of The Intouchables in foreign film, but I also haven’t seen most of the ones that pushed it out, so I can’t say it really deserved to be there. It is a light comedy after all, but I love that movie and thought it was a lock. The other pleasant surprise was that (Academy Award nominee) Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone actually made the nominations announcement entertaining, even when MacFarlane did what he always does and went for the easy, quasi-insensitive joke about Hitler. Overall this did get me more excited for the actual show, but I have a feeling Tina Fey and Amy Poehler will set a pretty high bar on Sunday night. I didn’t do too poorly on the predictions front. Out of the 50 predictions I made, I got 40 correct, and only four weren’t in my list of alternates (two of those were in best director, and I’m still shocked I got the other three). Now, the long waiting game until the actual ceremony begins, with the other awards shows starting tonight at the Critics’ Choice Awards. Below are my predictions, the actual nominations, and some specific comments about each category. Enjoy! Best Picture Predictions: Argo Lincoln Zero Dark Thirty Les Miserables Life of Pi Silver Linings Playbook Django Unchained Beasts of the Southern Wild Moonrise Kingdom Amour (Alternates: The Master, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Intouchables) Actual: Beasts of the Southern Wild Silver Linings Playbook Zero Dark Thirty Lincoln Les Miserables Life of Pi Amour Django Unchained Argo Ok, so no huge surprises here. I’m disappointed that Moonrise didn’t get in, but there’s always going to be things that miss, and overall this is a pretty solid lineup. The big story here though, will be on Oscar night, where it now seems to be a showdown between Silver Linings Playbook and Lincoln, with Life of Pi and Amour still being outside contenders (hell, even Beasts or Argo may have a shot). I love this year! So much excitement! Director Predictions: Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty Ben Affleck, Argo Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Ang Lee, Life of Pi Michael Haneke, Amour (Alternates: Tom Hooper, Les Miserables; Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained) Actual: David O’ Russell, Silver Linings Playbook Ang Lee, Life of Pi Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Michael Haneke, Amour Behn Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild Here is where all the shock of the morning came from. Only two of the DGA nominees got in. Affleck & Bigelow were both snubbed in favor of Zeitlin and O’ Russell. I really liked beasts, so I’m happy that it seems to be such a strong contender between this nomination and Wallis getting in. Beasts really was such a vision that I’m very happy he is getting a deserved nomination. Silver Linings was in my top 10, so I’m happy for O’ Russell, but in this category I think he should have been replaced by Tarantino, Affleck, or Bigelow, even if that would have been less exciting (and wouldn’t have helped pave the way for Weinstein’s fourth win in a row). Lead Actor Predictions: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook John Hawkes, The Sessions Denzel Washington, Flight Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (Alternates: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables) Actual: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Denzel Washington, Flight Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook Joaquin Phoenix, The Master I can’t believe they left John Hawkes out. That was such a phenomenal performance in a funny, touching film. I said this about BAFTA yesterday, and I will say it again here: how the hell do you give Helen Hunt a nomination and snub Hawkes? It makes zero sense to me. On the positive side though, I am happy Phoenix got in, and in an ideal world he would have a chance of upsetting DDL, but I don’t see that happening. In the end, I’m just happy that the best performance of the year got in. Lead Actress Predictions: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thrity Emmanuelle Riva, Amour Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone Naomi Watts, The Impossible (Alternates: Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Helen Mirren, Hitchcock) Actual: Naomi Watts, The Impossible Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Emmanuelle Riva, Amour Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild Wallis! I am ecstatic that she made the cut, as well as Riva. This now makes them the youngest & oldest lead actress nominees ever, which is a nice way to show the range of female performances this year. The biggest surprise is probably the omission of Cotillard, but I guess I should have known they wouldn’t give two French actresses in foreign language films nominations in the same category. Supporting Actor Predictions: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master Alan Arkin, Argo Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained (Alternates: Javier Bardem, Skyfall; Leonardo Dicaprio, Django unchained) Actual: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook Alan Arkin, Argo Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Nailed it! Waltz was great, so I’m happy he’s here. This is actually a line-up I’m very happy with overall, and it will keep everyone guessing until the ceremony, since everyone here is a previous winner. Supporting Actress Predictions: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Sally Field, Lincoln Helen Hunt, The Sessions Amy Adams, The Master Judi Dench, Skyfall (Alternates: Nicole Kidman, the Paperboy; Ann Dowd, Compliance) Actual: Sally Field, Lincoln Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook Helen Hunt, The Sessions Amy Adams, The Master Jacki Weaver is the big surprise here, but a welcome one (continuing a trend, these are all previous nominees). Other than that, not much to say since Hathaway will win. Original Screenplay Predictions: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master Rian Johnson, Looper (Alternates: Michale Haneke, Amour; John Gatins, Flight) Actual: John Gatins, Flight Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained Michael Haneke, Amour Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom Both my alternates got in over the ones I hoped would for, but I did enjoy both Flight and Amour. Overall, this is a very strong category and may be where they throw either Django or ZD30 a win. I think Haneke will take it though. Adapted Screenplay Predictions Chris Terio , Argo Tony Kushner, Lincoln David O’ Russell, Silver linings Playbook Lucy Alibar and Behn Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild Steven Chbosky, Perks of Being A Wallflower (Alternates: David Magee, Life of Pi; Ben Lewin, The Sessions) Actual: Lucy Alibar and Behn Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild Chris Terio , Argo Tony Kushner, Lincoln David O’ Russell, Silver linings Playbook David Magee, Life of Pi Here is where I should have known Life of Pi would get in. Again, I went with my heart over my head, but where would be the fun in following logic for everything? Also worth noting, the best picture winner, as usual, is probably among these nominees. Animated Feature Predictions: Brave Frankenweenie Wreck-it Ralph ParaNorman The Painting Actual: Frankenweenie Pirates! Band of Misfits Wreck-it Paranorman Brave Well, I was right that they wouldn’t nominate Rise of the Guardians, I just forgot Pirates! existed. I remember hearing decent things when it came out, and Aardman is a pretty great studio, so I will definitely check it out soon. As far as winners are concerned, I could see Brave taking it just because I’m sure a lot of voters just default to Pixar, but this is also a chance to give Tim burton an Oscar for his best movie in years. _ Following the Oscar Race is something I do year round. I started 4 or 5 years ago, and I don’t really know why or how it began, but I have found that there are some great writers out there who share their views on movies year round through the lens of the Oscar race, and most of them know not to take it too seriously. It has allowed me to find a lot of films I never would have, and it generates a lot of excitement for me around this time of year due to what is an essentially meaningless event (except for those who actually worked on the films that are honored). It is always nice to see a favorite film or individual that you like get recognition, and it doesn’t really matter if they don’t, since it does not alter the film that you already fell in love with.
This year is far different than any other since I have been following the Oscars. There are only two or three categories that I would actually feel comfortable predicting a winner in now, and usually by this time you know everything (or there are only two competitors left with any chance). Sure, a lot of this is because the nominations window was shorter, and many precursors were not announced before ballots were turned in, but even the critics’ awards have been spread out around a few films, all of which are varying degrees of good to great. It makes me happy that this is the case, since 2012 was such a strong year overall and had almost no disappointments in the pile of expected contenders that came at the end of the year. What follows are my predictions for the nominations that will be announced tomorrow morning by Seth MacFarlane and Emma Stone. I am only doing the main categories, since I feel I need to have seen most of the contenders and have a somewhat informed opinion on the categories. Best sound mixing or best makeup & hairstyling, for example, I would just be putting down everyone else’s predictions. Here, with the race still being fluid, a lot of fourth or fifth slots were decided by my hopes, and not necessarily by what is more likely. So when I’m very wrong about most, take it with a grain of salt. My picks are listed by likelihood of a nomination. Best Picture Usually this is decided by now, and I could not be happier that this race is still open. It is essentially a 3-way race (so happy Les Mis doesn’t seem to have a chance of winning) with Life Of Pi as a potential spoiler. The hardest part here is just deciding how many nominees there will be, and in a year with so much quality, I have to go with 10. Argo Lincoln Zero Dark Thirty Les Miserables Life of Pi Silver Linings Playbook Django Unchained Beasts of the Southern Wild Moonrise Kingdom Amour (Alternates: The Master, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, The Intouchables) Director So many great, proven directors had movies out that some have to be left in the cold. No matter what, this category will be stacked with talent. Should have been considered (more): Paul Thomas Anderson and Wes Anderson. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty Ben Affleck, Argo Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Ang Lee, Life of Pi Michael Haneke, Amour (Alternates: Tom Hooper, Les Miserables; Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained) Lead Actor This category is essentially down to 6 possibilities, but at this point I don’t think Daniel Day-Lewis can lose. Should have been considered: all the Frenchmen; Omar Sy, Denis Lavant and Jean-Louis Trintignant. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook John Hawkes, The Sessions Denzel Washington, Flight Joaquin Phoenix, The Master (Alternates: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables) Lead Actress There are many strong performances this year, but only so many are being considered, as is a common problem. Comedy, as always, needs to have more of a chance. I wish Wallis would make it in, but I really don’t think it’s going to happen at this point. Should have been considered: Greta Gerwig and Aubrey Plaza. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thrity Emmanuelle Riva, Amour Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone Naomi Watts, The Impossible (Alternates: Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Helen Mirren, Hitchcock) Supporting Actor As always, this is the most overstuffed category, with a lot of deserving performances. Christoph Waltz should be lead, so I’m worried all three Django guys will cancel themselves out letting Bardem in. But I loved Waltz and had to put him in. No matter what, this is likely to be filled by previous winners. Should have been considered: Ezra miller, Bryan Cranston, and Jason Clarke. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master Alan Arkin, Argo Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained (Alternates: Javier Bardem, Skyfall; Leonardo Dicaprio, Django unchained) Supporting Actress Another field full of familiar names, when I would love to see some new(er) faces recognized. This is another category where the nominations are a formality though, since Anne Hathaway has this in the bag. Should have been considered: Rebel Wilson, Emma Watson, and Emily Blunt. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Sally Field, Lincoln Helen Hunt, the Sessions Amy Adams, The Master Judi Dench, Skyfall (Alternates: Nicole Kidman, the Paperboy; Ann Dowd, Compliance) Original Screenplay As usual, this is the category that is most likely to represent some of my favorite films. There were so many great originals this year that it’s a shame the usual names will be tossed around, even if most deserve it. Should have been considered: Damsels In Distress, The Intouchables, and Safety Not Guaranteed Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained Paul Thomas Anderson, the Master Rian Johnson, Looper (Alternates: Michale Haneke, Amour; John Gatins, Flight) Adapted Screenplay As usual, I have less investment in the adapted films, but this is where the expected frontrunners for best picture all show up. Should have been considered: Pitch Perfect and Bernie. Chris Terio , Argo Tony Kushner, Lincoln David O’ Russell, Silver linings Playbook Lucy Alibar and Behn Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild Steven Chbosky, Perks of being A Wallflower (Alternates: David Magee, Life of Pi; Ben Lewin, The Sessions) Animated Feature This category is tough for me, since I haven’t seen any of the independent fare that is eligible, but I’ll go with the best reviewed of the bunch, plus the usual studio fare. That being said, I can’t see them nominating Rise of the Guardians no matter how good it was technically. I’m just happy Wreck-it Ralph should find a place at the table. Brave Frankenweenie Wreck-it Ralph ParaNorman The Painting I'll be back tomorrow with my reactions to the nominees, and to check up on how poorly I predicted them. Enjoy! |
Categories
All
Archives
April 2019
|