We’re right in the middle of my favorite season: Awards Season! A busy month of ceremonies kicks off on Sunday with the most fun and unpredictable show, the Golden Globes. I say it every year, but always feel the need to reiterate that all artistic awards are meaningless as any actual judge of quality, and that’s even more accurate for these. They are however, a great way to talk about film & television, and typically a pretty entertaining show. I’m sure that will continue in 2019 with a ceremony hosted by Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh, a very interesting and seemingly random combination of two people I like. They also said they hope to avoid politics for the night, which would be a pleasant surprise.
One thing (or rather 18) I’m not sure of, is who the winners will be. Film awards are becoming increasingly difficult to predict in general as social media reaction is louder and more important than ever and the Hollywood Foreign Press appears to be trying to improve their reputation with recent wins. The Golden Globes sometimes seem really predictable (big stars! big musicals!) until they’re not (Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals?), so even if there’s reasoning here it could all go completely out the window when dealing with the whims of a small, random group of foreign journalists that are particularly susceptible to marketing and meet & greets with celebrities. The TV awards at the Golden Globes feel like a huge afterthought for them and the audience, although they are ahead of the curve (Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) as much as they are too eager to crown something new (Mozart in the Jungle). I do not mean to take away from any winners, it’s just all very confounding. The Golden Globes do still manage to put out a good list of nominees, there are only a couple true headscratchers. With that, onto my totally right, maybe wrong, subjective, well-reasoned, unbiased opinion on who will (and should) win.
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Tonight marks the real beginning of 2018’s ‘awards season’ with the Golden Globes. While I’ve always been interested in which films or tv shows will win, starting the year with a basically anonymous group of less than 100 foreign journalists - who have proven to have some different perspectives on quality in the past - is a nice reminder that ultimately none of that matters. However, this year may be a reminder that while winning is superficial, the actual shows themselves can become a powerful platform. Last year, it was all about Meryl Streep’s fiery speech against Trump, but ultimately she had the platform without a unique point of view due to personal experience. In 2018, Trump will almost certainly have a place at Hollywood awards shows, but the big story will be different, as the industry has become a focal point for the sexual harassment/assault reckoning, and so far has provided a good example of how to start purging an industry of the problem. The sad reality is that many actresses (and, it seems, almost every woman), has been personally affected by this, and now have a platform to push other industries to make change, and other victims to feel supported. I don’t want the ceremony to get uselessly political, but if it offers a chance to talk about meaningful change, I’m happy to lose some of the usual drunken jokes. With all that said, I am not in any position to speak further about that issue, so I’ll defer to the victims. The good news is that even though the awards are superficial, the nominees this year offer plenty of chances to reward stories about anyone other than straight, white men. In fact, the actress races as a whole are far more difficult to predict due to a wealth of stories about strong women. So, without further ado, some totally subjective, and likely incorrect predictions for the winners! Another year, and another awards season full of what amounts to the one percent patting themselves on the back. As I always do, I must caveat these with the fact that none of this matters, except for providing opportunities to discuss the better films of each year with a larger audience. That goes doubly for the Golden Globes since they often make some surprising decisions that reflect an infatuation for movie stars and shiny, new objects. But they have been getting better in the past few years. Ok, now I feel like I have defended myself enough to jump into predicting, and sharing my own thoughts.
I don’t expect much of this to be correct, as I typically let my own preferences influence my predictions instead of being able to separate myself and logically guess who will win what. Enjoy the show! Best picture - Drama Nominees: Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water Lion Manchester by the Sea Moonlight Will win: Manchester by the Sea Should win: Moonlight While every film in this category is good, there are two I would consider great. Manchester by the Sea is a crushing film filled with great performances and emotional heartbreak. Exploring these themes makes the file extremely effective, but that’s also what makes it little fun, even if it’s unquestionably one of the best films of the year. While Manchester is a film that looks like a typical awards film, Moonlight is surprisingly staying at the top of every conversation despite following a gay black man as he grows up. The triptych structure allows us to explore a large swath of Chiron/Black/Little’s life, focusing on how our outward identity can evolve, while an emotional life remains hidden & neglected. Two great films, but Moonlight hit me a little harder and provided a little more hope. While I respect and love how Manchester didn’t take the easy route, I still think Moonlight edges it out overall. Best picture – Musical or Comedy Nominees: 20th Century Women Deadpool Florence Foster Jenkins La La Land Sing Street Will win: La La Land Should Win: La La Land If there’s one award that La La Land was never going to lose, here it is. As a true musical set in LA, this is tailor made for the awards circuit and is not facing the tough competition it will in future ceremonies. By being in the comedy/musical category it can not lose the top award, and may even come close to a sweep in all categories. Oh, and by the way the film is incredible, so the Golden Globes won’t let themselves miss jumping on the Damien Chazelle bandwagon early. It’s very nice to see another true musical, Sing Street, and a genuine comedy, Deadpool, nominated (I have not had a chance to see 20th Century Women yet, Florence is fine...). They are both enjoyable, but not the stunning achievement La La Land is. Once again we must remember that all that matters for the Golden Globes this year is the hosts. They may not be the most prestigious organization, but the HFPA know how to host a party and after last year I can’t wait to see what Tina Fey and Amy Poehler do now that they have some tenure in this gig. Other than that it’s nice to see a bunch of celebrities having a good time while some of them win awards. That’s the flip side of having no credibility (and waning significance) to the awards – no one takes them too seriously, which can be a nice breath of fresh air. We get to see a lot of nominations for contenders that go unrecognized elsewhere thanks to the comedy/drama split on the film side and it’s fun to see all the TV & film people in one place (even if that line is quickly disappearing). The biggest shock this year is how good the overall crop of nominees in the film categories are. With so many of the top movies being classified as comedies they were really able to spread the love and not nominate anything embarrassing (cough The Tourist Cough). Either way, here are my Golden Globes predictions for this Sunday. Keep in mind, this is the Globes, so in most cases I will take popularity into account much more than quality and just plain guess in others as they really like to go their own way with some awards. There are less than 100 voters so there are always some surprises. _ We all know that the only thing that matters tonight is the hosts. With Amy Poehler & Tina Fey together, I really don’t care who wins, since I don’t think the show can go wrong. Since they are both great writers, improvisers, actresses, and physical comedians, they can pull off anything and no one will be thinking about Ricky Gervais’ semi-awkward (but still usually funny) hosting gigs.
Either way, here are my Golden Globes predictions at the last minute. Keep in mind, this is the Globes, so that is why I will take popularity into account much more than quality in some cases. Best picture - Drama Nominees: "Argo" "Django Unchained" "Life of Pi" "Lincoln" "Zero Dark Thirty" Will win: Lincoln. Should win Zero Dark Thirty. This would give Lincoln its first big win, and I think that’s how it will go. It is entirely possible Argo could take this, but Zero Dark Thirty is the best movie in the bunch, even if I liked Django more. Best picture - Comedy Nominees: "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" "Les Miserables" "Moonrise Kingdom" "Silver Linings Playbook" "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen" Will win: Silver Linings Playbook. Should Win: Silver Linings Playbook (or Moonrise Kingdom). This is a very close race, but Silver Linings has been gaining momentum and has Harvey Weinstein behind. Even if they usually reward the big musical, I don’t think Les Mis will win because it seems too divisive for a small group to give it the prize even with a cast of big names (which Silver Linings also has). Best Actress - Drama Nominees: Marion Cotillard, "Rust and Bone" Jessica Chastain, "Zero Dark Thirty" Helen Mirren, "Hitchcock" Naomi Watts, "The Impossible" Rachel Weisz, "The Deep Blue Sea" Will win: Jessica Chastain. Should win: Jessica Chastain. Jessica Chastain has to win this. It will be a big prize they can give to a film in the middle of a lot of conversations at the moment. It is also a fantastic performance. Chastain’s biggest competition, Jennifer Lawrence, will also win a best actress prize tonight, while the other possible spoilers at the Oscars, Wallis & Wiva, are not nominated here. Best actor - Drama Nominees: Daniel Day-Lewis, "Lincoln" Richard Gere, "Arbitrage" John Hawkes, "The Sessions" Joaquin Phoenix, "The Master" Denzel Washington, "Flight" Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis. Should win: Joaquin Phoenix. There’s not much to say here, as Day-Lewis probably can’t lose. Joaquin Phoenix gave my favorite performance of the year, and the one that seemed most difficult and original. Best Actress - Comedy Nominees: Emily Blunt, "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen" Jennifer Lawrence, "Silver Linings Playbook" Judi Dench, "Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" Maggie Smith, "Quartet" Meryl Streep, "Hope Springs" Will win: Jennifer Lawrence. Should win: Jennifer Lawrence. With Lawrence and Chastain separated, any doubt goes out the window, as well as any excitement. At least it’s a deserving performance. I wish Aubrey plaza or Anna Kendrick could have been here. Best Actor - Comedy Nominees: Jack Black, "Bernie" Bradley Cooper, "Silver Linings Playbook," Hugh Jackman, "Les Miserables" Ewan McGregor, "Salmon Fishing in the Yemen" Bill Murray, "Hyde Park on Hudson" Will win: Hugh Jackman. Should win: Bradley Cooper. Hmmm. This is the hardest category to predict so far. Cooper, I think, gave the better performance, but they may want to give Jackman an award (most likely his only one). I’ll go with my gut and pick Jackman. Best Animated Feature Nominees: "Brave" "Frankenweenie" "Wreck-it Ralph" "Rise of the Guardians" "Hotel Transylvania" Will win: Frankenweenie. Should win: Wreck-it Ralph. They will probably go with Burton, but I hope Ralph takes it. Best Foreign language Film Nominees: "The Intouchables" "Amour" "A Royal Affair" "Rust and Bone" "Kon-Tiki" Will win: The Intouchables. Should win: Amour. Amour is clearly ahead, but The Intouchables is a great film, and it was a huge worldwide success, so I’ll pick the upset. Best supporting actress Nominees: Anne Hathaway, "Les Miserables" Helen Hunt, "The Sessions" Amy Adams, "The Master" Sally Field, "Lincoln" Nicole Kidman, "The Paperboy" Will win: Anne Hathaway. Should win: Amy Adams. Anne Hathaway all the way. Even if I disliked the film, she gives a great (if brief) performance, but I think Amy Adams would deserve it, she just has no chance. Best supporting actor Nominees: Alan Arkin, "Argo" Philip Seymour Hoffman, "The Master" Christoph Waltz, "Django Unchained" Leonardo DiCaprio, "Django Unchained" Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln" Will win: Leonardo DiCaprio. Should win: Christoph Waltz. This is a hard one, but DiCaprio gives a good performance in a great movie, and is a huge star. He doesn’t even give the best performance in his film, but I don’t think Waltz has a real chance. Honestly any one of Hoffman, Jones, and DiCaprio could win. Best director Nominees: Ben Affleck, "Argo" Ang Lee, "Life of Pi" Steven Spielberg, "Lincoln" Quentin Tarantino, "Django Unchained" Kathryn Bigelow, "Zero Dark Thirty" Will win: Ben Affleck. Should win: Kathryn Bigelow. Even if they give Lincoln the big prize, I think there will be a split. Affleck is a popular guy who made a very good film, so I think they will reward him. Bigelow could, and I think should, spoil. Best screenplay Nominees: "Silver Linings Playbook" "Argo" "Django Unchained" "Zero Dark Thirty" "Lincoln" Will win: Lincoln. Should win: Django Unchained. Even with adapted & original combined into one category, I don’t think Lincoln will lose. Best television drama series Nominees: "Boardwalk Empire" "Breaking Bad" "Downton Abbey" "Homeland" "The Newsroom" Will win: Homeland. Should win: Breaking Bad. After its’ recent romp at the Emmy’s, Homeland will win here, since it didn’t last year. Mad men not being here is kind of a joke, but that makes the win for Homeland even easier. Best television comedy series Nominees: "The Big Bang Theory" "Episodes" "Girls" "Modern Family" "Smash" Will win: The Big Bang Theory. Should win: Girls. There are a lot of big omissions in this category, so it doesn’t mean much of anything. Modern Family is the likely winner, but Big Bang is an enormous hit that has not been rewarded with a big prize yet. Best mini-series or made-for-TV movie Nominees: "Game Change" "The Girl" "Hatfields & McCoys" "The Hour" "Political Animals" Will win: Game Change. Should win: Game Change. I’ll admit I ahven’t seen most of these, but Game Change has been the default winner here (plus I saw and liked it). I wouldn’t be shocked to see Hatfields & McCoys win though. Best actor – Drama series Nominees: Steve Buscemi for "Boardwalk Empire" Bryan Cranston for "Breaking Bad" Jeff Daniels for "The Newsroom" Jon Hamm for "Mad Men" Damian Lewis for "Homeland" Will win: Jeff Daniels. Should win: Bryan Cranston. Lewis could win here , but I think the fact that Newsroom is a new HBO drama centered around a movie star gives Daniels the edge, regardless of the quality. As always though, Cranston should walk away with this easily. Best Actress – Drama Series Nominees: Connie Britton for "Nashville" Glenn Close for "Damages" Claire Danes for "Homeland" Michelle Dockery for "Downton Abbey" Julianna Margulies for "The Good Wife" Will win: Claire Danes. Should win: Clair Danes. Have you watched Homeland? Best Actor – Comedy series Nominees: Alec Baldwin for "30 Rock" Don Cheadle for "House of Lies" Louis C.K. for "Louie" Matt LeBlanc for "Episodes" Jim Parsons for "The Big Bang Theory" Will win: Louis C.K. Should win: Louis C.K. I really wish Louis could win here, so I’ll put him down. I have no idea who will win this category, and despite the others being bigger stars, C.K. has the hottest profile at the moment. Best actress – Comedy series Nominees: Zooey Deschanel for "New Girl" Lena Dunham for "Girls" Tina Fey for "30 Rock" Julia Louis-Dreyfus for "Veep" Amy Poehler for "Parks and Recreation" Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus. Should win: Amy Poehler. Louis Dreyfus won the Emmy, and she is a popular actress who has an HBO show centered on her character, so I think she’s safe, even if her biggest competition is co-hosting. Best television supporting actor Nominees: Max Greenfield for "New Girl" Ed Harris for "Game Change" Danny Huston for "Magic City" Mandy Patinkin for "Homeland" Eric Stonestreet for "Modern Family" Will win: Mandy Patinkin. Should win: Mandy Patinkin. These categories are impossible, since they combine all series, mini-series and made for TV movies into one category. I think Mandy Patinkin will take it, since that show will presumably have a big night, and there’s no other huge threat here. However, there are so many omissions from Breaking Bad, Parks & Rec, and Community alone that it really doesn’t mean anything if he wins. Best television supporting actress Nominees: Hayden Panettiere for "Nashville" Archie Panjabi for "The Good Wife" Sarah Paulson for "Game Change" Maggie Smith for "Downton Abbey" Sofía Vergara for "Modern Family" Will win: Hayden Panettiere. Should win: Sofia Vergara. Nashville seems to have fans, and Hayden Panettiere is young, hot, and singing. I think voters will not be able to resist that competition, but Vergara has yet to win an award for Modern Family. |
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