The 2018 film slate and resulting awards season has been weird. It’s the first year that the Academy showed significant growing pains as it tries to make its membership better reflect the world at large. That diversity has come across gender and racial categories, both domestic and abroad.
The clearest example of the wide spectrum of Academy membership is that both Green Book and Black Panther are nominated for Best Picture. The former is about as traditional an Oscar movie as you can make today (Driving Miss Daisy won almost 30 years ago), complete with questionable racial politics. The latter is a spy thriller with an almost all black cast that promotes African pride and empowerment, all wrapped up in a superhero comic book adaptation that’s part of the biggest franchise in film history. Other notable inclusions this year are Cold War’s director nod, as well as it and Never Look Away in cinematography. Roma is a black & white, foreign-language Netflix film that’s also the frontrunner to win Best Picture. Spider-Man is all but guaranteed an Oscar. But there’s still a mediocre film that pops up everywhere (cough* Bohemian Rhapsody *cough) to remind us that no matter what the Academy will make questionable choices. The changes reflected in the nominations alone would make it a fascinating year, but the Academy has also shown a desperate desire for increased ratings and the puzzling belief that a three-hour show would help. First, there was the popular film category, an idea that was quickly abandoned after a backlash that should have been expected. Then they got Kevin Hart as host which was a big win until his old tweets and homophobic jokes (which were already common knowledge) caused controversy – again something that should have been expected. Instead of just apologizing first and maybe getting to keep the gig, Hart got defensive, the Academy flubbed the response (two or three times) and he was out. Then Hart finally properly apologized. Now the show is left without a host. Finally, there was the three-day flip-out around four categories, including editing and cinematography, being cut from the broadcast. While I think the response was overly harsh, it was another expected issue that they should have been prepared for. Once again, they had to backtrack. For an organization that includes some of the best PR representatives in the world, they’re surprisingly inept at crisis management. In the end it looks like the telecast may be the most surprising part of the night since there's no host to guide the way, but that might just make it boring. We get Queen as the opener, so at least one good thing has come from Bohemian Rhapsody’s nomination count. While I'm hoping we get some interesting wins along the way I'm predicting fewer surprises because that always reflects my optimism and leads to a lot of incorrect guesses. So here we go – my somewhat informed predictions that will be heavily influenced by personal taste and therefore heavily wrong. Enjoy!
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We’re right in the middle of my favorite season: Awards Season! A busy month of ceremonies kicks off on Sunday with the most fun and unpredictable show, the Golden Globes. I say it every year, but always feel the need to reiterate that all artistic awards are meaningless as any actual judge of quality, and that’s even more accurate for these. They are however, a great way to talk about film & television, and typically a pretty entertaining show. I’m sure that will continue in 2019 with a ceremony hosted by Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh, a very interesting and seemingly random combination of two people I like. They also said they hope to avoid politics for the night, which would be a pleasant surprise.
One thing (or rather 18) I’m not sure of, is who the winners will be. Film awards are becoming increasingly difficult to predict in general as social media reaction is louder and more important than ever and the Hollywood Foreign Press appears to be trying to improve their reputation with recent wins. The Golden Globes sometimes seem really predictable (big stars! big musicals!) until they’re not (Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals?), so even if there’s reasoning here it could all go completely out the window when dealing with the whims of a small, random group of foreign journalists that are particularly susceptible to marketing and meet & greets with celebrities. The TV awards at the Golden Globes feel like a huge afterthought for them and the audience, although they are ahead of the curve (Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) as much as they are too eager to crown something new (Mozart in the Jungle). I do not mean to take away from any winners, it’s just all very confounding. The Golden Globes do still manage to put out a good list of nominees, there are only a couple true headscratchers. With that, onto my totally right, maybe wrong, subjective, well-reasoned, unbiased opinion on who will (and should) win. After the best picture presentation debacle (but great outcome) last year, it’s inevitable that the Academy Award show will be less exciting than 2017. But for those of us who pay too much attention to this stuff, it’s already one of the most interesting and competitive film awards years ever, and the finale should continue that trend. I’m a big fan of a lot of the key contenders as well, which always makes it more fun. So no matter what wins – even as, like I say every year, it doesn’t really matter outside of a conduit for conversation and promotion – I’ll be happy with the list. While many of the “big” awards seem set-in-stone, the best picture race is unlike anything I have ever seen, with 3-4 legitimate contenders to win it. Plus, there’s a lot of deserving winners in most categories that seem like locks. For anyone taking bets (literally or figuratively) the below-the-line categories will provide a lot of tension to keep you entertained. Perhaps more than ever, politics will cast a shadow over the whole show. With the #MeToo movement, gun control, and a vast array of other issues top of mind, expect a political lens on everything, for better or worse. As always, I am trying to predict, but when there's a toss-up I go with the one I want to win, which usully hurts my accuracy. So without further ado, my kind-of, maybe somewhat accurate, but almost certainly wrong Oscar predictions for 2018! Another week, another awards show. The Screen Actors Guild Awards are poised to be a little more entertaining than usual this year, as Kristen Bell becomes the first host of the ceremony, and there will be exclusively female presenters. It probably can't be as political as the Golden Globes, but it seems poised to continue to shine a light on the need for progress while the film industry congratulates itself. The SAG awards are always a little different than other awards since there are around 100,000 members from all over the country, leading to much more populist choices, and generally favoring films that were released a little earlier (notice that The Post was not nominated for anything despite the presence of Meryl Streep & Tom Hanks, plus an ensemble filled to the brim with stellar character actors). There's also a huge television contingent, so familiar faces who have gotten a big break can have a leg up. Hopefully it’s an exciting evening, but it’s more likely to solidify a few frontrunners right before Oscar nominations are announced on Tuesday morning. This is also a great chance for some new television winners on the comedy side. Tonight marks the real beginning of 2018’s ‘awards season’ with the Golden Globes. While I’ve always been interested in which films or tv shows will win, starting the year with a basically anonymous group of less than 100 foreign journalists - who have proven to have some different perspectives on quality in the past - is a nice reminder that ultimately none of that matters. However, this year may be a reminder that while winning is superficial, the actual shows themselves can become a powerful platform. Last year, it was all about Meryl Streep’s fiery speech against Trump, but ultimately she had the platform without a unique point of view due to personal experience. In 2018, Trump will almost certainly have a place at Hollywood awards shows, but the big story will be different, as the industry has become a focal point for the sexual harassment/assault reckoning, and so far has provided a good example of how to start purging an industry of the problem. The sad reality is that many actresses (and, it seems, almost every woman), has been personally affected by this, and now have a platform to push other industries to make change, and other victims to feel supported. I don’t want the ceremony to get uselessly political, but if it offers a chance to talk about meaningful change, I’m happy to lose some of the usual drunken jokes. With all that said, I am not in any position to speak further about that issue, so I’ll defer to the victims. The good news is that even though the awards are superficial, the nominees this year offer plenty of chances to reward stories about anyone other than straight, white men. In fact, the actress races as a whole are far more difficult to predict due to a wealth of stories about strong women. So, without further ado, some totally subjective, and likely incorrect predictions for the winners! My number one prediction: This will be the single most political awards ceremony ever. I expect mostly issue-focused speeches rather than the usual heartfelt (or insincere) shock, but hopefully the sense of humor remains in tact. At the very least, I’m certain Jimmy Kimmel knows how hard his job is at the moment. With that said, I’m just going to get right into it. I also PROMISE my favorite films of 2016 will be coming within a week, even if it’s just ridiculous at this point. Deadlines work for me. Awards show disclaimer: In the end, none of this really matters. Will I care if I get most of these wrong? Not much. I honestly may be happier because that will be exciting. Does a typical win mean anything beyond confirmation of strong name recognition, an effective marketing strategy, and at least a competent film? Not assuredly. Will anything about this ceremony change the great slate of films that came out in 2016 (both nominated & not) or any of their elements? Nope. Remember that, in the end, it’s all PR politics. Another year, and another awards season full of what amounts to the one percent patting themselves on the back. As I always do, I must caveat these with the fact that none of this matters, except for providing opportunities to discuss the better films of each year with a larger audience. That goes doubly for the Golden Globes since they often make some surprising decisions that reflect an infatuation for movie stars and shiny, new objects. But they have been getting better in the past few years. Ok, now I feel like I have defended myself enough to jump into predicting, and sharing my own thoughts.
I don’t expect much of this to be correct, as I typically let my own preferences influence my predictions instead of being able to separate myself and logically guess who will win what. Enjoy the show! Best picture - Drama Nominees: Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water Lion Manchester by the Sea Moonlight Will win: Manchester by the Sea Should win: Moonlight While every film in this category is good, there are two I would consider great. Manchester by the Sea is a crushing film filled with great performances and emotional heartbreak. Exploring these themes makes the file extremely effective, but that’s also what makes it little fun, even if it’s unquestionably one of the best films of the year. While Manchester is a film that looks like a typical awards film, Moonlight is surprisingly staying at the top of every conversation despite following a gay black man as he grows up. The triptych structure allows us to explore a large swath of Chiron/Black/Little’s life, focusing on how our outward identity can evolve, while an emotional life remains hidden & neglected. Two great films, but Moonlight hit me a little harder and provided a little more hope. While I respect and love how Manchester didn’t take the easy route, I still think Moonlight edges it out overall. Best picture – Musical or Comedy Nominees: 20th Century Women Deadpool Florence Foster Jenkins La La Land Sing Street Will win: La La Land Should Win: La La Land If there’s one award that La La Land was never going to lose, here it is. As a true musical set in LA, this is tailor made for the awards circuit and is not facing the tough competition it will in future ceremonies. By being in the comedy/musical category it can not lose the top award, and may even come close to a sweep in all categories. Oh, and by the way the film is incredible, so the Golden Globes won’t let themselves miss jumping on the Damien Chazelle bandwagon early. It’s very nice to see another true musical, Sing Street, and a genuine comedy, Deadpool, nominated (I have not had a chance to see 20th Century Women yet, Florence is fine...). They are both enjoyable, but not the stunning achievement La La Land is. The themes of the Emmy’s this year are clearly diversity & the domination of mini-series. After a year of #OscarsSoWhite, this is a showcase for how much the entertainment industry has evolved in the newly dominant cultural medium. More eyes are on the shows and actors than ever before and we’re all better for it even if there’s no way to watch everything these days. Except all the voters watch HBO which is why they are going to clean-up again this year. With that quick overview out of the way, onto the predictions. As with all entertainment awards shows keep in mind these are pointless and art is subjective. So it doesn’t matter but is a fun medium for talking about quality shows even if there are inevitably some problematic omissions and inclusions. Overall though the Emmy’s do a shockingly good job of nominating worthy shows, especially in the comedy categories. Ok, I’m going to try and make this quick (at least in relation to my usual awards columns), but before I get to predictions & preferences I’d like to point out a few big themes for this year that will have impact across the board. The voting process has been updated, moving to an online system and away from forcing a small judging panel to watch all the submitted episodes prior to voting. I don’t 100% understand the new system, but by all accounts it will likely allow a much larger group to impact the final voting, and it will certainly diminish the usual power of a very strong submission episode from an unknown actor/show. This could (and probably will) lead to more populist picks, but I think this really gives the number of nominations more predictive power for the eventual winners. Across the board support mattered less when episodes could have a big impact on a small group, but now this will likely end up more like the Oscars, where a show with support from different branches sees more wins. This also gives me another excuse when my predictions are terribly wrong! The biggest change in the drama categories is that Breaking Bad concluded and had a final victory lap last year. That leaves a lot of room for new winners in all categories as that show dominated for most of the last 2 years. The beneficiaries will most likely be one of the perpetual bridesmaids from these years, no longer blocked from winning by a behemoth like that. In comedy it’s the same thing that I’ve been hoping for the past few years – Modern Family fatigue finally hits the series category. There are just so many great, groundbreaking comedies on TV currently (that actually get nominated!) and they have all lost out to this milquetoast series over & over again. I’m hoping the reign is finally over, but a bit worried about the impact of this new voting system. The other noteworthy change is the split of the variety series category into sketch & talk. Saturday Night Live can now lose to something other than The Daily Show or The Colbert Report. Despite that weak attempt at comedy there are a couple brilliant sketch comedies that have finally broken through due to this changes, and one fo them will actually win this year. It seems more appropriate for these to compete in a separate category and highlights the breadth of quality programming currently on the air. With that – on to the should, could & will win game! Well here we are with another year of film behind us and another Academy Awards broadcast tonight. Every year I write this I need to provide a reminder: the Academy Awards are not important as an indicator of quality or the end all be all of a film’s worth. These are fun awards and it’s nice when a film you love wins, but in the end this really only effects the person who won and any future projects they work on – the films (nominated or not) are not changed, so the work stands on its own after today. This is all a preamble of me proving that I’ve spent too much time thinking about these awards, but it’s more of a fun political guessing game than a competition of quality. If you’d like my thoughts on the overall quality of film this year and my personal favorites – click here. With that out of the way I can now say how excited I am because there are some amazing films nominated and likely winning awards tonight. Not only that, but there’s actually suspense in some major categories, including best picture, best director, and lead actor. I have never had such a difficult time predicting winners which is really interesting and should make for a fun show. As for my predictions themselves? Probably ok, not great. In a lot of places my personal favorite is probably a safe second place bet (mostly with "Whiplash"), but guess what – I predicted it anyways because there’s a bit of hope-dicting going on. There could be some major surprises since relatively few categories are utter locks so I’ll always predict and pull for my favorites – it’d be nice to get it all right but in the end I do this as an excuse to talk about some films I love, so if they have a chance I’m going to lean in that direction. This is already too long – just like the show undoubtedly will be – so enjoy! |
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