We’re right in the middle of my favorite season: Awards Season! A busy month of ceremonies kicks off on Sunday with the most fun and unpredictable show, the Golden Globes. I say it every year, but always feel the need to reiterate that all artistic awards are meaningless as any actual judge of quality, and that’s even more accurate for these. They are however, a great way to talk about film & television, and typically a pretty entertaining show. I’m sure that will continue in 2019 with a ceremony hosted by Andy Samberg and Sandra Oh, a very interesting and seemingly random combination of two people I like. They also said they hope to avoid politics for the night, which would be a pleasant surprise. One thing (or rather 18) I’m not sure of, is who the winners will be. Film awards are becoming increasingly difficult to predict in general as social media reaction is louder and more important than ever and the Hollywood Foreign Press appears to be trying to improve their reputation with recent wins. The Golden Globes sometimes seem really predictable (big stars! big musicals!) until they’re not (Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals?), so even if there’s reasoning here it could all go completely out the window when dealing with the whims of a small, random group of foreign journalists that are particularly susceptible to marketing and meet & greets with celebrities. The TV awards at the Golden Globes feel like a huge afterthought for them and the audience, although they are ahead of the curve (Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) as much as they are too eager to crown something new (Mozart in the Jungle). I do not mean to take away from any winners, it’s just all very confounding. The Golden Globes do still manage to put out a good list of nominees, there are only a couple true headscratchers. With that, onto my totally right, maybe wrong, subjective, well-reasoned, unbiased opinion on who will (and should) win. FilmBest picture - Drama Nominees: Black Panther BlackkKlansman Bohemian Rhapsody If Beale Street Could Talk A Star is Born Will win: A Star is Born Should win: BlackkKlansman Should have been here: Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Roma was ineligible) Predicting what will win here doesn’t seem so difficult at first glance and probably isn't. A Star is Born is star-studded, musical, and one of the darlings of awards season so far. For all those reasons I can’t bet against it. But BlackkKlansman is the other frontrunner this season and got a lot of nominations, so it’s very possible. Black Panther has held surprisingly strong so far considering the potential blockbuster/Marvel biases, but it seems like the influx of younger diverse voters at the Oscars are more likely to vote for a win than the HFPA. Unfortunately, I think within the HFPA - an organization notoriously uninterested in and/or blind to the nuances of US racial politics - those two films along with If Beale Street Could Talk could split the vote, even if they're wildly different from each other. Deciding what should win is a far more difficult task after eliminating the two cliché-ridden, music-centric films A Star is Born (better movie, less entertaining) and Bohemian Rhapsody (far worse movie, slightly more entertaining). I’m forced to make a decision between the three remaining films that give radically different takes on parallel issues, and any one of them would be a deserving winner. Yet in the end I chose BlackkKlansman since it is the most direct and strikes the best balance between art and entertainment. It’s also the one I watched most recently, so ask me tomorrow and I might make a different decision. Best picture – Musical or Comedy Nominees: Crazy Rich Asians The Favourite Green Book Mary Poppins returns Vice Will Win: Green Book Should Win: The Favourite Should have been here: The Death of Stalin; Game Night It’s similarly easy to narrow down this prediction to the only two films with nominated directors and screenplays: Green Book and Vice. Vice has the most nominations so it might appear to have an edge, but outside of the two lead actors they couldn’t have reasonably added another one for Green Book, while Vice had a bunch of extra supporting parts to choose from. As a group eager to be ahead of the pack, the HFPA may have given Vice so many nominations since it was the last one they saw. Both films are becoming divisive, but Green Book is ‘only’ divisive because of how it handles race and the use of a familiar, out-dated, white-savior story that Don Shirley's family has pushed against. Remember when I said the HFPA is ignorant to the nuances of US racial politics? That’s why I give Green Book the edge. Choosing the should here was easy as I believe The Favourite is both the best and funniest movie from 2018. On top of the issues I alluded to above, Green Book also just feels like a movie I have seen before. Mary Poppins Returns is a movie I have seen before. Crazy Rich Asians is the type of movie this category exists for and in most years would deserve to beat the dramas posing as comedies. Vice is good, it just can’t live up to The Favourite and is only arguably a comedy since it’s so painful to watch. Best director Nominees: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born Alfonso Cuaron, Roma Peter Farrelly, Green Book Spike Lee, BlackkKlansman Adam McKay, Vice Will win: Spike Lee Should win: Alfonso Cuaron Should have been here: Ryan Coogler, Black Panther; Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite This award should and will go to Cuaron for the rest of the season, for an absolutely astonishing technical & emotional achievement. But at the Golden Globes, Roma is pretty much guaranteed a win in foreign language film. While all of these films are likely to win other awards, none of them feel as set in stone as that category, and I think it hurts Cuaron here if voters are looking to spread the love. While the two comedy frontrunners are nominated here, Vice and Green Book are both perceived as acting showcases more than director-driven. A Star is Born could also be put in that category, but the overall achievement(s) by Bradley Cooper is really what drives that film. It’s very possible that Cooper could win here and/or best picture, but I’m kind of hoping they give this to Spike Lee, especially if BlackkKlansman loses best picture. Despite their crazy decisions, the HFPA does care about optics, and no one will begrudge Lee getting this award. If BlackkKlansman loses both top categories to A Star is Born? That’s not a great look for critical reasons first and racial politics second. Best Actress - Drama Nominees: Glenn Close, The Wife Lady Gaga, A Star is Born Nicole Kidman, Destroyer Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Rosamund Pike, A Private War Will win: Lady Gaga Should win: Melissa McCarthy Should have been here: Yalitza Aparacio, Roma; Viola Davis, Widows; Kiki Layne, If Beale Street Could Talk The actors being separated into drama and comedy categories allows some deserving, ultimately top 10, just not top 5 performances to get recognized at the Globes, so it’s nice to see Kidman and Pike here. Glenn Close is a great actor, but not a big celebrity, so her nomination here is more of a necessary step on the way to a potential career-achievement Oscar than an actual opportunity to win. Melissa McCarthy’s performance should be a slam dunk for a Golden Globe, since she is showing a new side of herself in a dramatic role, she’s a huge star, and is incredible in the film. But remember all the reasons I gave for them loving A Star is Born? Add to that a chance for Lady Gaga to give a speech on your show, and being the first big awards show to give her an acting win. In fact, they were so eager they gave her a win a couple years ago for her small role on American Horror Story. If there’s one lock in the entire show, this is just as locked as Roma's foreign language win. Best actor - Drama Nominees: Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody John David Washington, BlackkKlansman Will win: Rami Malek Should win: John David Washington Should have been here: Daveed Diggs, Blindspotting; Lucas Hedges, Ben is Back The benefactors of the expanded category here are two wonderful performances from Hedges and Dafoe in mediocre movies, although Hedges was better in Ben is Back. I’m happy John David Washington is moving towards an Oscar nomination, but no matter how much the HFPA loves a show business dynasty, his last name can’t give him the extra boost he would need to overcome the two musical frontrunners. Cooper has plenty of other chances for a win and Bohemian Rhapsody has become quite the phenomenon, so they will probably give this one to Malek for the only deserving element of his film. Best Actress - Comedy Nominees: Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns Olivia Colman, The Favourite Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade Charlize Theron, Tully Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians Will win: Olivia Colman Should win: Olivia Colman Should have been here: Rachel McAdams, Game Night; Olivia Cooke, Thoroughbreds; Anna Kendrick, A Simple Favor I’ve gotten too far down this list without my will and should wins matching, so that’s why I’m giving this coin-flip to the jaw-dropping Olivia Colman. It’s just as, if not more likely that Emily Blunt wins - and she is great in an impossible role - but they have to recognize what Colman is doing and if they give this award to The Favourite it may go home empty-handed. Although I will forgive everything if we get to see Elsie Fisher win for her beautifully awkward performance and give a speech. Overall this category makes the best use of their additional slots by recognizing Fisher, Theron’s tragically forgotten work in Tully, and Wu’s pitch-perfect timing that is what a comedy category is here for. Best Actor - Comedy Nominees: Christian Bale, Vice Lin Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns Viggo Mortensen, Green Book Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie Will win: Viggo Mortensen Should win: Christian Bale Should have been here: Lakeith Stanfield, Sorry to Bother You; Steve Buscemi, The Death of Stalin This is the category Green Book is most certain to win. Christian Bale is the only one standing in Mortensen’s way, and Bale has been rewarded many times for his performances. Mortensen feels more under-appreciated, and his performance is very good, even if the film around him is problematic. I’m happy Redford got a nomination here since he was good in a perfectly pleasant movie but doesn’t deserve to be in the larger conversation. While I haven’t been able to see Stan & Ollie yet, Reilly has had an incredible year so it’s nice to see that recognition. Miranda is fine, but he could have done that role in his sleep and there are tons of people who should have taken his place in this category. Best supporting actress Nominees: Amy Adams, Vice Claire Foy, First Man Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Emma Stone, The Favourite Rachel Weisz, The Favourite Will win: Regina King Should win: Regina King Should have been here: Cynthia Erivo, Bad Times at the El Royale; Julia Roberts, Ben is Back This is one tough category, and not only because both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz are both nominated for co-lead performances. Aside from Regina King, all of these women have won a Golden Globe before. Both she and Amy Adams are nominated twice this year (in the same categories!). King has won the most critics awards this and Beale Street is a smaller film that managed to get a (deserved) nomination for best picture, so I’m betting on her, although Adams could sneak by if they still like Vice as much as they did when voting for the nominations. Best Supporting Actor Nominees: Mahershala Ali, Green Book Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy Adam Driver, BlackkKlansman Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Sam Rockwell, Vice Will win: Richard E. Grant Should win: Richard E. Grant Should have been here: Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther; Nicholas Hoult, The Favourite; Russell Hornsby, The Hate U Give This is the first category where I think almost any of the nominees could win, and they’re all pretty deserving. I’m giving the edge to Richard E. Grant partially because he’s my preference, but mostly because he delightfully and emotionally shows his character's crass desire for performative elegance in a return to the spotlight after doing small work in the many years since Withnail & I. Plus if I follow the spread the love theory (why stop now?), this is the only place to reward Can You Ever Forgive Me? Runner-up is probably Mahershala Ali, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Timothee Chalamet sneaks in since he is a charming young star. Best screenplay Nominees: Alfonso Cuaron, Roma Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk Adam McKay, Vice Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Green Book Will win: Vice Should win: The Favourite Should have been here: The Death of Stalin; Can You Ever Forgive Me?; Eighth Grade; BlackkKlansman, Black Panther The last big category means one last chance to spread the wealth, and that’s why I’m betting on Vice. That’s a really dense screenplay and a lot of material to sift through so this would be a nice place to reward it. Still, there’s nothing better this year than the Victorian vulgarity and inventive shade in The Favourite. Barry Jenkins’ ability to successfully capture the soul of a James Baldwin story was no easy feat, though, nor was Alfonso Cuaron’s ability to capture his soul. As always, the fact that the Globes squeeze all the original and adapted screenplays into one category has the opposite effect of the lead acting nominations. There’s a lot missing from here, but I’m most surprised Spike Lee missed the cut. Best Animated Feature Nominees: Incredibles 2 Isle of Dogs Mirai Ralph Breaks the Internet Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse Will win: Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse Should win: Spider-man: Into the Spider-verse I haven’t had a chance to see Mirai but outside of that this is a surprisingly strong and deep set of animated nominees. Isle of Dogs is another gorgeous stop-motion fairytale from Wes Anderson, Ralph Breaks the Internet is a good sequel to a great movie, and Incredibles 2 is a great sequel to a great movie. They all have messages that speak to all ages, while some have more laughs just for kids than others. But Spider-Man has done all of that better than the others, and completely unexpectedly. It’s so good I’m willing to be against Pixar. Although the late release could hurt it, in which case Incredibles 2 will come for the win and still deserve it. Best Foreign language Film Nominees: Capernaum Girl Never Look Away Roma Shoplifters Will win: Roma Unfortunately this wasn’t one of the years I was lucky enough to see many of these in theaters. But even if Roma wasn’t nominated in a couple other categories it would still be the clear favorite, and I find it hard to believe any of the other nominees are better. Best Original Song Nominees: “All The Stars,” Black Panther “Girl in the Movies,” Dumplin’ “Requiem for a Private War,” A Private War “Revelation,” Boy Erased “Shallow,” A Star is Born Will win: “Shallow” Should win: “Shallow” There’s almost no chance “Shallow” loses here, although I will give a 1% shot to “All the Stars.” I don’t really like any of them, but even I have to admit those two are catchy. And there’s no denying that scene in A Star is Born is gold. Best Original Score Nominees: Marco Beltrami, A Quiet Place Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther Justin Hurwitz, First Man Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns Will win: Mary Poppins Returns Should Win: Black Panther Should have been here: Nicholas Britell, If Beale Street Could Talk; Erik Friedlander, Thoroughbreds I really hope the HFPA takes the chance to reward Black Panther here for the amazing interjection of African tribal music into this already iconic score. The marriage of that influence with a more traditional orchestration was perfectly executed and one of the biggest parts of bringing Wakanda to life. But I think Black Panther will end up with zero wins in favor of Shaiman’s traditional, quote-heavy Mary Poppins work. TelevisionBest television drama series Nominees: The Americans Bodyguard Homecoming Killing Eve Pose Will win: The Handmaid’s Tale Should win: The Handmaid’s Tale Should have been here: Better Call Saul, Succession, Patriot This category is a great example of the HFPA’s recency-bias. All of the nominees except for The Americans premiered this year, and that series has never been nominated for a Golden Globe before. With a very well-received final season, the HFPA is likely protecting their reputation with at least one nod for The Americans. Outside of that show, all of the freshman shows could win, but Killing Eve is the most universally beloved, the easiest and most fun to watch, and Sandra Oh is the star. They seem to like her. Best television comedy series Nominees: Barry Kidding The Good Place The Kominsky Method The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Will win: The Kominsky Method Should win: The Good Place Should have been here: Bojack Horseman, Atlanta, GLOW First of all, I have to give the HFPA credit for nominating The Good Place before the Emmys despite it being one of the best shows on TV for three years now. But once again, it’s not shiny and new enough to win. The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel isn't brand new, but this is a good reminder that they were the first group to crown that show as an awards darling, so it might win again this year. Among the new series, Barry has the best reputation, but The Kominsky Method is a good show, starring two older movie stars. They have shown an affinity for that before, so I’m guessing they will again. Best mini-series or made-for-TV movie Nominees: The Alienist The Assassination of Gianni Versace: American Crime Story Escape at Dannemora Sharp Objects A Very English Scandal Will win: The Assassination of Gianni Versace Should win: The Assassination of Gianni Versace Should have been here: American Vandal, Maniac By the nature of this category, these are all new shows so the HFPA generally goes with more of a consensus. This year that consensus is deservedly around Versace. But if they want to stand out A Very English Scandal could win, a very funny show starring another very familiar face: Hugh Grant. Best actor – Drama series Nominees: Jason Bateman, Ozark Stephen James, Homecoming Richard Madden, Bodyguard Billy Porter, Pose Matthew Rhys, The Americans Will win: Matthew Rhys Should win: Stephen James Should have been here: Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul; Michael Dorman, Patriot Matthew Rhys is likely to benefit from the lack of competition, but he is still deserving of the award for very strong work throughout over the years. A win from Billy Porter or Richard Madden is possible since those are new shows with strong performances, even if it’s debatable if Porter is lead. While Julia Roberts got all the press for Homecoming, Stephen James was the heart of that show (and has largely been ignored as the lead in If Beale Street Could Talk). Best Actress – Drama Series Nominees: Caitriona Balfe, Outlander Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale Sandra Oh, Killing Eve Julia Roberts, Homecoming Keri Russell, The Americans Will win: Sandra Oh Should win: Sandra Oh Should have been here: Jodie Comer, Killing Eve; Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul If Sandra Oh wasn’t hosting, I’d think Balfe would win since she beat a lot of other actresses to be the only repeat nominee besides Moss - who they couldn’t leave out. Oh is really great in Killing Eve, but she is still outdone by the astonishing performance from her co-lead Jodie Comer. Best Actor – Comedy series Nominees: Sascha Baron Cohen, Who Is America? Jim Carrey, Kidding Michael Douglas, The Kominsky Method Donald Glover, Atlanta Bill Hader, Barry Will win: Michael Douglas Should win: Donald Glover Should have been here: Will Arnett, Bojack Horseman; Ted Danson, The Good Place How do they nominate The Good Place in comedy series yet fail to include Ted Danson here? What the fork? Michael Douglas’ performance is right in the sweet spot for the Golden Globes: good performance by an older respected actor and star in a (very) new show. Jim Carrey is doing very special work on a small, interesting show. Bill Hader could likely win, and I’d be very happy since he revealed a whole different side to his talent, while remaining hilarious. But Donald Glover showed so many sides of his talent both in-front of and behind the camera in every aspect of Atlanta. He should get this for the ‘Teddy Perkins’ episode alone. Best actress – Comedy series Nominees: Kristen Bell, The Good Place Candace Bergen, Murphy Brown Alison Brie, GLOW Rachel Brosnahan, Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Debra Messing, Will & Grace Will win: Kristen Bell Should win: Kristen Bell Should have been here: Maya Rudolph, Forever This category is a weird mix of incredible nominations and a desperation to hold onto the past. Bergen and Messing are both nominated for performances they won with decades ago, and their shows still feel like they’re from another time, even if they’re both directly impacted by modern politics. I’d cheer for any of the other three winning, and I’m sure part of my prediction for a Kristen Bell win is pure hope, but given the series nomination I think it’s a real possibility. Brosnahan is just as likely though, even if she won just last year. Best Actor - mini-series or made-for-TV movie Nominees: Antonio Banderas, Genius: Picasso Daniel Bruhl, The Alienist Darren Criss, The Assassination of Gianni Versace Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose Hugh Grant, A Very English Scandal Will win: Hugh Grant Should win: Darren Criss Should have been here: Jonah Hill, Maniac; Tyler Alvarez, American Vandal This is where I think the Golden Globes will go against the consensus around Darren Criss that started the moment Versace premiered. But they won’t go completely off the rails as a Hugh Grant win would be a good way to recognize A Very English Scandal and hopefully get more people to watch it. And I can pretend it’s also for his work in Paddington 2. Best Actress - mini-series or made-for-TV movie Nominees: Amy Adams, Sharp Objects Patricia Arquette, Escape at Dannemora Connie Britton, Dirty John Laura Dern, The Tale Regina King, Seven Seconds Will win: Amy Adams Should Win: Amy Adams Should have been here: Emma Stone, Maniac This one will also be an Amy Adams v. Regina King showdown, and since King is likely to take film supporting actress I’ll bet on Adams, even though King beat her for the Emmy. Sharp Objects is also far more well-known, which helps its case here. Wouldn't it have been cool if Emma Stone was also nominated and we had three supporting actress nominees overlapping here? (awards-nerd alert!) Best television supporting actor
Nominees: Alan Arkin, The Kominsky Method Kieran Culkin, Succession Edgar Ramirez, The Assassination of Gianni Versace Ben Whishaw, A Very English Scandal Henry Winkler, Barry Will win: Henry Winkler Should win: Kieran Culkin Should have been here: Michael Chernus, Patriot; Brian Tyree Henry, Atlanta; Anthony Carrigan, Barry Both of the television supporting categories are complete nonsense because they encompass every show on the air instead of the three individual types of lead actor programs. Alan Arkin and Henry Winkler are stretching completely different muscles than Edgar Ramirez, although Ben Whishaw and Kieran Culkin are somewhere more in the middle of comedy and drama. This is another category where anyone would make a deserved winner, but I think Culkin was the best thing from a great show. Winkler is a legend doing good work on a new show. The pattern continues! Best television supporting actress Nominees: Alex Borstein, Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Patricia Clarkson, Sharp Objects Penelope Cruz, Assassination of Gianni Versace Thandie Newton, Westworld Yvonne Strahovski, The Handmaid’s Tale Will win: Alex Borstein Should win: Alex Borstein Should have been here: Maya Rudolph, Big Mouth; Kia Stevens & Betty Gilpin, GLOW Alex Borstein is similarly doing something completely different than her competition, but she is also the most essential part of her show outside of Rachel Brosnahan's charm. Without Susie to call Midge on her shit, Marvelous Mrs. Maisel would be an impossible show to pull off, and Borstein does that hilariously while also taking the dramatic weight when she needs to. Other than that, anyone might win this, with the runner-up likely to be Thandie Newton since she is the real star of Westworld.
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