Another week, another awards show. The Screen Actors Guild Awards are poised to be a little more entertaining than usual this year, as Kristen Bell becomes the first host of the ceremony, and there will be exclusively female presenters. It probably can't be as political as the Golden Globes, but it seems poised to continue to shine a light on the need for progress while the film industry congratulates itself. The SAG awards are always a little different than other awards since there are around 100,000 members from all over the country, leading to much more populist choices, and generally favoring films that were released a little earlier (notice that The Post was not nominated for anything despite the presence of Meryl Streep & Tom Hanks, plus an ensemble filled to the brim with stellar character actors). There's also a huge television contingent, so familiar faces who have gotten a big break can have a leg up. Hopefully it’s an exciting evening, but it’s more likely to solidify a few frontrunners right before Oscar nominations are announced on Tuesday morning. This is also a great chance for some new television winners on the comedy side. Outstanding Ensemble Nominees: The Big Sick Get Out Lady Bird Mudbound Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Will win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Should win: Get Out This is an incredible group of nominees, even though it’s missing some films defined by ensembles, including Call Me By Your Name and Shape of Water. It’s very heartening to see Mudbound and The Big Sick nominated, which are exactly the types of films that get a little extra attention thanks to this guild. However, the three nominated Oscar frontrunners will duke it out and either cast could walk away with the win. Three Billboards and Lady Bird have to be considered the frontrunners when looking at the other categories, with Three Billboards having the slight edge (especially since they seem guaranteed at least one win). However, the Get Out ensemble is exactly the type of cast that actors love to reward, as it’s fleshed out with less famous faces who have done consistently great work over the years in both film & TV, complementing each other more than stealing the spotlight. I’m hopeful it can pull out its first big win of the season, but it seems like tonight could solidify Three Billboards’ status as the one to beat for the rest of the year. Outstanding Female Actor - Lead Nominees: Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Will win: Frances McDormand Should Win: Frances McDormand This is the last chance for someone to stop Frances McDormand from storming the stage to claim her second Academy Award, but I’m pretty sure that's sealed up. Saoirse Ronan is her closest competition, but when compared with McDormand, there’s something about Ronan's performance that feels too quiet. Actors love a big showy performance, and Lady Bird is much more naturalistic film, while McDormand chews and spits out everything around her (in the best possible way). Plus, the role is tailor-made for the current political climate. If there’s a shock, I could see Margot Robbie getting it as I, Tonya has picked up steam and it’s the most physical, transformative, and unexpected performance in the category. Outstanding Male Actor - Lead Nominees: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by your Name James Franco, The Disaster Artist Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, esq. Will win: Gary Oldman Should win: Timothee Chalamet Now that Gary Oldman has won the Golden Globe, he seems to be on solid ground for every award moving forward. As the season grows, it’s possible some problematic comments from his past could shake things up, but for right now he's safe. Chalamet would be an incredible choice, but this group typically likes to reward those with a larger body of work over newcomers. Outstanding Female Actor - Supporting Nominees: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound Hong Chau, Downsizing Holly Hunter, The Big Sick Allison Janney, I, Tonya Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Will win: Allison Janney Should win: Allison Janney When you have two clear frontrunners - in this case Metcalf & Janney - you can usually bet on SAG to reward the veteran TV character actor, but both of them fit the bill this year. As with Oldman, I think the Golden Globe win has given Janney the edge to keep winning within the industry after head to head battles with Metcalf in critics awards. Outstanding Male Actor - Supporting Nominees: Steve Carrell, Battle of the Sexes Willem DaFoe, The Florida Project Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Will win: Sam Rockwell Should win: Sam Rockwell As I’m going through the categories, I’m realizing how much The Golden Globes may have made everything less exciting. Willem DaFoe was doing very well with critics, but now all the momentum is with Rockwell, and just like in supporting actress, they have both had long, celebrated careers as character actors. There’s been some growing (and deserved) criticism around Three Billboards’ handling of race, which is all centered around Rockwell’s character, but that is due to the writing, and there’s no question his performance is stellar regardless. If any group will appreciate that distinction it's actors, so the backlash won’t start here if it does start to change the race. Outstanding Television Ensemble - Drama Nominees: The Crown Game of Thrones The Handmaid’s Tale Stranger Things This is Us Will win: The Handmaid’s Tale Should win: The Handmaid’s Tale The Crown didn’t win last year, so it’s possible they’ll want to reward it, and the same could be said about This is Us. But ultimately the year of The Handmaid’s Tale is still in full force. Outstanding Television Ensemble - Comedy Nominees: Black-ish Curb Your Enthusiasm GLOW Orange is the New Black Veep Will win: GLOW Should win: GLOW or Veep Orange is the New Black has had a hold on this category for three years now, as a huge, diverse ensemble that gives hope to the actors who make up the majority of the guild. But this year another Netflix comedy seems ready to take the crown for a similarly diverse, female-led cast. GLOW is an outstanding show that is deserving of a big breakout win and I’m hoping this is it. Veep’s cast is always incredible and they have never won here, so I couldn’t be too upset if it ended up winning. Outstanding Female Television Actor - Drama Nominees: Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things Claire Foy, The Crown Laura Linney, Ozark Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale Robin Wright, House of Cards Will win: Elisabeth Moss Should win: Elisabeth Moss The SAG awards clearly love Netflix, and it’s nice to see some outliers like Millie Bobby Brown and Laura Linney nominated here. But the affection for another streaming service won’t stop Elisabeth Moss and Hulu from claiming yet another award. Outstanding Male Television Actor - Drama Nominees: Jason Bateman, Ozark Sterling K. Brown, This is Us Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones David Harbour, Stranger Things Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul Will win: Sterling K. Brown Should win: Bob Odenkirk Once again Sterling K. Brown will win here, unless they decide to reward Jason Bateman for a strong dramatic turn. They won’t. Outstanding Female Television Actor - Comedy Nominees: Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black Alison Brie, GLOW Jane Fonda, Grace & Frankie Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep Lily Tomlin, Grace & Frankie Will win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus Should win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus With Rachel Brosnahan somehow left off this list, the one non-Netflix nominee should benefit from that distinction, or just from being Julia Louis-Dreyfus. I’d be very happy if Alison Brie took this though, and there’s no counting out Uzo Aduba with this group. Outstanding Male Television Actor - Comedy Nominees: Anthony Anderson, Black-ish Aziz Ansari, Master of None Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm Sean Hayes, Will & Grace William H. Macy, Shameless Marc Maron, GLOW Will win: Marc Maron Should win: Marc Maron This is one of the hardest categories to predict as I could see everyone except Larry David winning. Ultimately I’m letting my bias influence my prediction, even if I’ll admit that half the battle for Maron is being perfectly cast - he’s great, but the character isn’t a huge stretch from his usual personality. Outstanding Female Television Actor - Limited Series or Movie Nominees: Laura Dern, Big Little Lies Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies Jessica Lange, Feud: Bette & Joan Susan Sarandon, Feud: Bette & Joan Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies Will win: Nicole Kidman Should win: Nicole Kidman Apparently there were only two mini-series with women in them last year. And there will continue to be only one winner. Outstanding Male Television Actor - Limited Series or Movie Nominees: Bendict Cumberbatch, Sherlock Jeff Daniels, Godless Robert De Niro, Wizard of Lies Geoffrey Rush, Genius Alexander Skarsgaard, Big Little Lies Will win: Alexander Skarsgaard Should win: Jeff Daniels I’d love for Jeff Daniels to surprise here, and it’s definitely a possibility considering his veteran status, but ultimately Skarsgaard will continue the Big Little Lies domination. Outstanding Film Stunt Ensemble
Nominees: Baby Driver Dunkirk Logan War for the Planet of the Apes Wonder Woman Will win: Wonder Woman Should win: Logan Outstanding Television Stunt Ensemble Nominees: Game of Thrones Glow Homeland Stranger Things The Walking Dead Will win: Game of Thrones Should win: Game of Thrones
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