After the best picture presentation debacle (but great outcome) last year, it’s inevitable that the Academy Award show will be less exciting than 2017. But for those of us who pay too much attention to this stuff, it’s already one of the most interesting and competitive film awards years ever, and the finale should continue that trend. I’m a big fan of a lot of the key contenders as well, which always makes it more fun. So no matter what wins – even as, like I say every year, it doesn’t really matter outside of a conduit for conversation and promotion – I’ll be happy with the list. While many of the “big” awards seem set-in-stone, the best picture race is unlike anything I have ever seen, with 3-4 legitimate contenders to win it. Plus, there’s a lot of deserving winners in most categories that seem like locks. For anyone taking bets (literally or figuratively) the below-the-line categories will provide a lot of tension to keep you entertained. Perhaps more than ever, politics will cast a shadow over the whole show. With the #MeToo movement, gun control, and a vast array of other issues top of mind, expect a political lens on everything, for better or worse. As always, I am trying to predict, but when there's a toss-up I go with the one I want to win, which usully hurts my accuracy. So without further ado, my kind-of, maybe somewhat accurate, but almost certainly wrong Oscar predictions for 2018! Animated Feature Film
Will win: Coco Should win: Loving Vincent Wish you were here: The LEGO Batman Movie Documentary Feature
Will win: Faces Places Should win: Faces Places Wish you were here: Jane Foreign Language Film
Will win: A Fantastic Woman Should win: N/A Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Will win: Call Me By Your Name Should win: Call Me By Your Name Wish you were here: Thor: Ragnarok, Stronger Writing (Original Screenplay)
Will win: Get Out Should win: Get Out Wish you were here: The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Phantom Thread, Brigsby Bear Actress In A Supporting Role
Will win: Allison Janney Should win: Lesley Manville Wish you were here: Holly Hunter, The Big Sick; Tatiana Maslany, Stronger Actor In A Supporting Role
Will win: Sam Rockwell Should win: Sam Rockwell Wish you were here: Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name; Lil Rel Howery, Get Out Actress In A Leading Role
Will win: Frances McDormand Should win: Sally Hawkins Wish you were here: Danielle McDonald, Patti Cake$; Aubrey Plaza, Ingrid Goes West; Jennifer Lawrence, mother! Actor In A Leading Role
Will win: Gary Oldman Should win: Timothee Chalamet Wish you were here: Kumail Nanjiani, The Big Sick; Colin Farrell, The Killing of Sacred Deer; Jake Gyllenhaal, Stronger Best Director
Will win: Guillermo Del Toro Should win: Jordan Peele Wish you were here: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me By Your Name; Darren Aronofsky, mother!; Edgar Wright, Baby Driver Best Picture
I’m going to start at the “bottom” with Lady Bird. Realistically the reason it might win is political, as rewarding a female-made film this year would be a big statement. I don’t want that to take away from the film at all, but as I’ve said before it’s a coming-of-age movie that’s just really, really, well done. Great Gerwig is fantastic and will be back. If you go by pure scope, Dunkirk is the clear frontrunner, wrangled together by the legendary Nolan. He has gone unrecognized (by the Oscars) for a long time now, and with such a craft-heavy film, there will undoubtedly be support across the board. It’s also something everyone can appreciate as no one is going to say it was easy to make. With the voting process in this category, that universal support with a little bit of passion could generate an upset. Get Out is likely in third place, but it's very close, again due to the voting procedures in this category. There’s no question that a lot of people are impressed by the filmmaking on display and it’s emotionally resonant, as it came out over a year ago and is still in the conversation. It’s a fresh perspective, bringing his experience to life, letting others in with surprising subtlety. This type of acclaim gives Get Out a real chance to win, but going by previous awards and nomination tallies, I have to put it in third. The last two are neck and neck, but at this moment I’m going to put Three Billboards in second. It has won three out of four big awards voted on by actual industry professionals, but is still missing a director nomination. The same voting procedure that will help Get Out and Dunkirk is likely to hurt Three Billboards, as it has become more & more divisive as time goes on. There’s an internet bubble of backlash that also might have an effect on the voting. Is that substantial? We’ll see. Shape of Water leads the nominations, and I cant think of why anyone would hate this movie. Whether it’s the fish-sex movie or not, it has the same across the board support of Dunkirk, the lack of backlash of Get Out, and a powerful (if more subtle) message of outsiders standing up to the system. While it seems like a “safe” choice in a year that begs for a strong political statement, it's likely to age well. Just keep in mind that any of these 4-5 could win, and I’ll probably change my mind 3 more times before the award is handed out. But really - won't it be awesome if Get Out is a best picture winner? Will win: The Shape of Water Should win: Get Out Wish you were here: mother!, The Big Sick, I, Tonya Music (Original Song)
Will win: “Remember Me” Should win: “Mystery of Love” Music (Original Score)
Will win: Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water Should win: Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread Film Editing
Will win: Dunkirk Should win: Baby Driver Cinematography
Will win: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 Should win: Roger Deakins, Blade Runner 2049 Wish you were here: Bill Pope, Baby Driver; Sayombhu Mukdeeprom, Call Me By Your Name Visual Effects
Will win: War for the Planet of the Apes Should win: War for the Planet of the Apes Costume Design
Will win: Phantom Thread Should win: Phantom Thread Production Design
Will win: The Shape of Water Should win: The Shape of Water Sound Editing
Will win: Dunkirk Should win: Dunkirk Sound Mixing
Will win: Dunkirk Should win: Baby Driver Makeup and Hairstyling
Will win: Darkest Hour Should win: Wonder With these last three categories, I have not had a chance to see the nominees, so I will be guessing based on what I know about them and the general consensus.
Short Film (Animated)
Will win: Dear Basketball Short Film (Live Action)
Will win: DeKalb Elementary Documentary (Short Subject)
Will win: Heroin(e)
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