Tonight marks the real beginning of 2018’s ‘awards season’ with the Golden Globes. While I’ve always been interested in which films or tv shows will win, starting the year with a basically anonymous group of less than 100 foreign journalists - who have proven to have some different perspectives on quality in the past - is a nice reminder that ultimately none of that matters. However, this year may be a reminder that while winning is superficial, the actual shows themselves can become a powerful platform. Last year, it was all about Meryl Streep’s fiery speech against Trump, but ultimately she had the platform without a unique point of view due to personal experience. In 2018, Trump will almost certainly have a place at Hollywood awards shows, but the big story will be different, as the industry has become a focal point for the sexual harassment/assault reckoning, and so far has provided a good example of how to start purging an industry of the problem. The sad reality is that many actresses (and, it seems, almost every woman), has been personally affected by this, and now have a platform to push other industries to make change, and other victims to feel supported. I don’t want the ceremony to get uselessly political, but if it offers a chance to talk about meaningful change, I’m happy to lose some of the usual drunken jokes. With all that said, I am not in any position to speak further about that issue, so I’ll defer to the victims. The good news is that even though the awards are superficial, the nominees this year offer plenty of chances to reward stories about anyone other than straight, white men. In fact, the actress races as a whole are far more difficult to predict due to a wealth of stories about strong women. So, without further ado, some totally subjective, and likely incorrect predictions for the winners! Best picture - Drama Nominees: Call me by Your Name Dunkirk The Post The Shape of Water Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Will win: The Shape of Water Should win: The Shape of Water This is a pretty stacked category, even when two of the Oscar frontrunners are over in comedy. Every one of these films would be a strong winner. Call me by your Name is an incredibly powerful film, but seems to have lost some momentum after mostly glowing reviews, even if support for the performances remains strong. Dunkirk is an incredible technical achievement, which just isn’t enough right now. My personal bias may blind me to the possible power of The Post, since it somehow feels slight despite two timely messages of female empowerment and freedom of the press. Perhaps a more streamlined focus on the story of powerful, independent, and assertive women is what makes The Shape of Water and Three Billboards the deserved frontrunners. Three Billboards has a ton of support with actors, which may help it win the Oscar, but doesn’t make as much of a difference here. The Shape of Water meanwhile, walks in with the most nominations, and is much more uplifting than its competition (although The Post really tries). Ultimately those two elements will probably drive it to the win. Best picture – Musical or Comedy Nominees: The Disaster Artist Get Out The Greatest Showman I, Tonya Lady Bird Will win: Lady Bird Should Win: Get Out First, I’m going to continue pretending The Greatest Showman doesn’t exist, as I’ve been trying to excise it from my brain since I saw it. That leaves us with four of my favorite films of the year, and while I loved I, Tonya and The Disaster Artist to varying degrees, they feel like acting showcases in the context of the Globes (much like Three Billboards). Then you have two arguable masterpieces that both hit the zeitgeist in very different ways. Get Out was released almost a year ago, yet has remained top of mind due to the shocking nature of the plot and the way it captured the attention of the entire country. Jordan Peele took an audacious approach to provide insight into an experience that can’t be fully understood without living it your entire life. It was wholly unexpected and one of the best directorial debuts I have ever seen. But, is it a comedy? In some ways yes, but even if celebrating the film in any way would be welcome, it almost feels like it’s too big a story to be crowned ‘best comedy.’ Lady Bird provides the easy choice, because it is very much a comedy, and who doesn’t love writer/director Greta Gerwig? A perfect female coming of age story, told by an incredibly talented and charming woman, in the year of the woman. The only thing that hurts it is that Lady Bird will almost certainly win at least one acting award, and Gerwig herself will win Screenplay. This is the most likely chance for the Globes to award Get Out, and they may not want it to walk away empty handed. Best director Nominees: Guillermo Del Toro, The Shape of Water Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk Ridley Scott, All the Money in the World Steven Spielberg, The Post Will win: Guillermo Del Toro Should win: Guillermo Del Toro If this wasn’t the Golden Globes, this would be a cakewalk for Del Toro, with a slight possibility for Nolan, especially since Gerwig & Peele are noticeably absent. However, I could find reasoning for each of these five winning. Ridley Scott replaced Kevin Spacey with Christopher Plummer in a month and still met his release date, which is both an incredible feat and the most immediate impact the sex scandals have had on a particular film. Spielberg is Spielberg. They could want to split director & picture between Shape of Water and Three Billboards, giving McDonagh a chance. Nolan wrangled an incredible achievement that took a unique, visually-driven approach to story. However, Del Toro is just as charming as his film, he’s an international star, and incredibly passionate, making him someone they will want to personally reward somewhere, and get up on stage as much as they can. Best Actress - Drama Nominees: Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Meryl Streep, The Post Michelle Williams, All the Money in the World Will win: Frances McDormand Should win: Sally Hawkins As with the big drama categories, The Shape of Water and Three Billboards are going head to head. However, I have to give the acting edge to Frances McDormand, especially if the bigger awards all go to The Shape of Water, as I predict. McDormand is always a powerful force on screen, and her character here storms over everyone in that film. Plus, it is actually about a woman fighting against a system that she sees downplaying her daughter’s sexual assault/murder. But who knows, Streep could win because they want her to give another speech. Best actor - Drama Nominees: Timothee Chalamet, Call Me by your Name Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Tom Hanks, The Post Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, esq. Will win: Gary Oldman Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis The pattern with best actor has been Gary Oldman v. Timothee Chalamet, and that will continue here. While it might seem like the HFPA would be more susceptible to the luscious Italian setting and European technique of Call Me by your Name (not to mention the charms of its star), I think Oldman has it in the bag. I’m a bit of a cynic when it comes to films like Darkest Hour, but it goes well beyond the typical biopic, and Oldman is a big part of that. I wish Day-Lewis was getting more recognition for his astonishing final performance, but despite retirement it seems like he’s being taken for granted after being awarded many times before, or maybe Phantom Thread just came out too late. Best Actress - Comedy Nominees: Judi Dench, Victoria & Abdul Margot Robbie, I, Tonya Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird Emma Stone, Battle of the Sexes Helen Mirren, The Leisure Seeker Will win: Margot Robbie Should win: Margot Robbie I’m happy to see Emma Stone included here, as I think that film has been undeservedly forgotten, but ultimately both this and supporting actress will be a battle between I, Tonya and Lady Bird. Saoirse Ronan probably has an edge since her film is slightly stronger overall and she is a more established actress, but as with the drama category, I think they’ll take the opportunity to give the lead acting award to something that won’t win best picture. Robbie powerful, funny, and transformative as Harding, and rewarding her here would feel more like an award for the film as a whole than if it wins in supporting. No, I had not heard of The Leisure Seeker either, but the Globes will be the Globes. Best Actor - Comedy Nominees: Steve Carrell, Battle of the Sexes Ansel Elgort, Baby Driver James Franco, The Disaster Artist Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out Will win: James Franco Should win: James Franco The weird Globes categories sometimes give some recognition to under the radar actors, so I’m happy Carrell got in, but the real treat is seeing Ansel Elgort nominated. Some technical categories will be kind to Baby Driver, but it’s a pleasure to see that film nominated here (and I wish it got into picture). Then there’s Jackman… But let’s talk about who could actually win. If they do not give picture to Get Out, I could see Daniel Kaluuya winning here to help them save face - and that’s not to undermine an incredibly empathetic performance that made that film possible. But the nature of Kaluuya’s performance is that of an audience surrogate, which is inherently less showy. James Franco’s character is the exact opposite, and he went semi-method, even while directing. Watching side by side footage of Tommy Wiseau & Franco is incredible, but the performance goes well beyond mere imitation as Wiseau the character is fleshed out as a sympathetic dreamer, just like everyone else in Hollywood. Best supporting actress Nominees: Mary J. Blige, Mudbound Hong Chau, Downsizing Allison Janney, I, Tonya Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water Will win: Laurie Metcalf Should win: Allison Janney As I mentioned in comedy actress, this will come down to I, Tonya v. Lady Bird. Given that I believe I, Tonya will win lead actress, I’m going to give this to Laurie Metcalf, who has been the runaway favorite with critics so far this season. However, Allison Janney is a huge TV star who has never won a Golden Globe, which gives her an extra edge (especially with a group where relationships matter so much). Mary J Blige was incredible and unrecognizable in Mudbound, and given her stardom it’s a choice I could see the Globes making, so I’d put her in a very distant third. Best Supporting Actor Nominees: Willem DaFoe, The Florida Project Armie Hammer, Call Me by your Name Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Will win: Christopher Plummer Should win: Armie Hammer If we go by current momentum, Willem DaFoe is the clear favorite, but I think this is the category here the Globes will remind us who they are. When Christopher Plummer was announced as a nominee, I immediately thought this was his to lose. He’s fine in the film, and it's remarkable when you take into account that he prepped, shot, and promoted the role in a month, but this is an incredible category filled with classic character actors, in great roles, in great films. Out of the other nominees, Armie Hammer is my pick, but I’d be almost equally happy if any of them won. Best screenplay Nominees: Guillermo Del Toro and Vanessa Taylor, The Shape of Water Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird Liz Hannah and Josh Singer, The Post Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Aaron Sorkin, Molly’s Game Will win: Greta Gerwig Should win: Greta Gerwig or Martin McDonagh If the Globes decide to spread the wealth, I could see The Post winning here. If the Globes want to reward a superstar writer, I could see Molly’s Game winning. However, I think this will be the easiest place for them to check off Lady Bird and give Greta Gerwig herself an award, as they wouldn’t pass up an opportunity for that acceptance speech. This is all ultimately moot though, since Get Out - the best screenplay of the year - isn't nominated. Best Animated Feature Nominees: The Boss Baby The Breadwinner Coco Ferdinand Loving Vincent Will win: Coco Should win: Loving Vincent Choosing my favorite between Coco, The Breadwinner, and Loving Vincent is a near-impossible task. Guessing which one will win the Golden Globe? Not so much. Best Foreign language Film Nominees: A Fantastic Woman First they Killed my Father In the Fade Loveless The Square Will win: The Square Should win: N/A I loved The Square, but I’ve only seen one other nominee: First they Killed my Father. However, I have heard enough good things about the rest of the pack to know I’m really just guessing here. Best Original Song Nominees: “Home,” Ferdinand “Mighty River,” Mudbound “Remember Me,” Coco “The Star,” The Star “This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman Will win: “Mighty River” Should win: “Remember Me” My suspicion is that Mary J. Blige will win a Golden Globe, but it will be as a musician. They have an opportunity to reward her here (and give a prize to Mudbound), while Coco wins animated feature. But a category like this is an opportunity for them to reward whoever the hell they want, and nothing would surprise me. Best Original Score Nominees: Carter Burwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Alexandre Desplat, The Shape of Water Jonny Greenwood, Phantom Thread John Williams, The Post Hans Zimmer, Dunkirk Will win: The Shape of Water Should Win: Phantom Thread For me, there are two scores that truly stood out from the pack this year, and luckily both are nominated here. Desplat helps bring a 1950’s fairy tale to life with an incredible score to set the stage, and I’m already a sucker for the music of that time (including a strong accordion presence). But Jonny Greenwood takes a whole different approach to the idea of a film score, with luscious piano that just envelops you in the mood of the film as an almost constant presence. In predictions, the more traditional takes the lead, but in my heart I love the new approach from Greenwood. Best television drama series Nominees: The Crown Game of Thrones The Handmaid’s Tale Stranger Things This is Us Will win: The Handmaid’s Tale Should win: The Handmaid’s Tale The weirdest thing about this category is that it’s so familiar. The Globes love to reward new things, yet there’s only one series here that hasn’t been nominated before. Add in that it’s an amazing show that speaks directly to everything happening right now, and I can’t imagine anything but The Handmaid’s Tale winning. Best television comedy series Nominees: Black-ish The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Master of None SMILF Will & Grace Will win: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Should win: Master of None I’m worried about this since the Will & Grace reboot just sounds like a Golden Globe winner. I’m optimistic about this since a European-flavored second season got Master of None the nomination its first season missed, and that was definitely one of the best things on TV last year. But there’s a new show, with an incredibly charismatic lead, that also happens to fit right in with winners like The Shape of Water, Lady Bird, and The Handmaid’s Tale. Not to mention it’s on Amazon. If Mozart in the Jungle can win, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel can’t lose. Best mini-series or made-for-TV movie Nominees: Big Little Lies Fargo Feud: Bette and Joan The Sinner Top of the Lake: China Girl Will win: Big Little Lies Should win: Fargo The only way Big Little Lies loses is due to the fact that it was renewed for a second season, making it, ummm… not a limited series. If that happens then I guess Feud wins? Honestly it doesn’t matter because Big Little Lies won’t be stopped by a technicality at the end of its awards run. Best actor – Drama series Nominees: Jason Bateman, Ozark Sterling K. Brown, This is Us Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul Liev Schreiber, Ray Donovan Will win: Sterling K. Brown Should win: Bob Odenkirk I’m not a big fan of This is Us, but there’s no question that Sterling K. Brown has held onto the momentum he generated with The People v. OJ Simpson. It’s possible Freddie Highmore wins as the lone broadcast nominee, and I’m hopeful for Odenkirk since he and Better Call Saul get better each year, but it seems like there's an obvious choice this year. Best Actress – Drama Series Nominees: Caitriona Balfe, Outlander Claire Foy, The Crown Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Deuce Katherine Langford, 13 Reasons Why Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale Will win: Elisabeth Moss Should win: Maggie Gyllenhaal There may be some recency bias involved with selecting Gyllenhaal as my should win, but I don’t want her to be forgotten in another category that seems like a foregone conclusion. That is nothing against Elisabeth Moss, who perfectly balances the character’s need to stay subservient, while also looking for any opportunity for escape. Sadly, it seems like that hits all too close to home right now, and Moss will deservedly walk home with another award for it. Best Actor – Comedy series Nominees: Anthony Anderson, Black-ish Aziz Ansari, Master of None Kevin Bacon, I Love Dick William H. Macy, Shameless Eric McCormack, Will & Grace Will win: Aziz Ansari Should win: Aziz Ansari This category has no clear frontrunner, so I am just hoping for Aziz Ansari to take it. I will never not love what Macy is doing on Shameless, but it’s been pretty much the same thing for 8 seasons now (even if the character is more sober right now). In reality, I could see either Bacon or McCormack winning, because of the Globes and all. Best actress – Comedy series Nominees: Pamela Adlon, Better Things Alison Brie, GLOW Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Issa Rae, Insecure Frankie Shaw, SMILF Will win: Rachel Brosnahan Should win: Alison Brie or Pamela Adlon Once again, a wealth of riches in the actress category. However, this one is pretty easy to predict, as Rachel Brosnahan not only fits the mold of a fun, charming character that can schmooze with the best of them (see previous winners Gina Rodriguez & Rachel Bloom), but her show is actually going to win the comedy category as well. Best Actor - mini-series or made-for-TV movie Nominees: Robert De Niro, Wizard of Lies Jude Law, The Young Pope Kyle McLachlan, Twin Peaks Ewan McGregor, Fargo Geoffrey Rush, Genius Will win: Robert De Niro Should win: Ewan McGregor I guess this is going to be where the obligatory movie star wins. While McGregor is the only one in a best series nominee, something weird happened with the third season of Fargo and people don’t seem to appreciate it as much, even if McGregor played two different roles. Kyle McLachlan is a strong possibility too, as what seemed like an initially divisive reaction seems to have turned into universal praise for the return of Twin Peaks. Best Actress - mini-series or made-for-TV movie
Nominees: Jessica Biel, The Sinner Nicole Kidman, Big Little Lies Jessica Lange, Feud: Bette & Joan Susan Sarandon, Feud: Bette & Joan Reese Witherspoon, Big Little Lies. Will win: Nicole Kidman Should Win: Nicole Kidman With everyone else nominated against a co-star, I guess Jessica Biel has a chance, but Kidman has been sweeping every award for Big Little Lies, and that’s likely to continue. Best television supporting actor Nominees: David Harbour, Stranger Things Alfred Molina, Feud: Bette & Joan Christian Slater, Mr. Robot Alexander Skarsgaard, Big Little Lies David Thewlis, Fargo Will win: David Harbour Should win: David Thewlis In my opinion, David Thewlis is far and away the best performance in this category. As the villian in Fargo’s third season, his sleaziness almost oozes off the screen. While Skarsgaard is the most likely winner since his series is nominated everywhere, I have a hunch they’ll want to reward Stranger Things somewhere, and I’m perfectly ok with David Harbour representing for the series. Best television supporting actress Nominees: Laura Dern, Big Little Lies Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale Chrissy Metz, This is Us Michelle Pfeiffer, Wizard of Lies Shailene Woodley, Big Little Lies Will win: Laura Dern Should win: Ann Dowd Ann Dowd was a somewhat surprising Emmy winner, but here she faces another Emmy winner in Laura Dern. While Dowd’s show is more recent, Laura Dern had one hell of a year between Big Little Lies, The Last Jedi, and Twin Peaks, plus: she gives a damn good speech when you let her.
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